Rick Arnett, SI.com golf correspondent
Who'll win? Ernie Els
Els was agonizingly close last year and has finished in the top-six every year since 2000. He's way overdue.
Who else will contend? Phil Mickelson, Tiger Woods, Retief Goosen, Vijay Singh, Tom Lehman, Jose Maria Olazabal, Davis Love III
Mickelson's obviously capable, but just three players (Nicklaus, Faldo, Woods) have successfully defended their crowns. Tiger loves the course and errant drives won't kill him. His flatstick will be the key. Goosen has great distance off the tee and an excellent pressure putter. Singh is a past winner but lost chances to win recently -- missing a two-footer at the Honda and left an approach in the lake on 18 at Bay Hill -- that could play with his mind. Lehman has eight top 10s in the last 13 events and plays Augusta well. Olazabal's a two-time winner who's made a resurgence this year. Love plays the course well but needs but needs more consistent scoring to win.
Who'll surprise? K.J. Choi, Luke Donald, Ryan Moore, Bernhard Langer
Choi was third last year, is an excellent iron player and is still underrated. This is Donald's first Augusta appearance, but he has the consistent game that is worthy to watch. Moore, an amateur, made the cut last year with only one 3-putt. He's fearless. Langer, a two-time winner, has great course knowledge.
Who'll disappoint? Mike Weir, Sergio Garcia
Weir's an excellent player but my gut tells me it's not his year. Garcia tied for fourth last year but his putting (182nd ranked) will be his downfall.
Jim Gorant, SI Golf Plus Senior Editor
Who'll win? Retief Goosen
Ah, Augusta in April, the slick fairways, the almost non-existent rough, and superfast, sloping greens. It's a venue that remains open to long and medium-long hitters alike (Mickelson, Weir, last two champs) and rewards patience, great iron play and putting. I'm going with Mr. Excitement. Goosen is good in all facets of the game and has been lurking just out of the winner's circle all season (six starts, five top 13 finishes).
Who else will contend? Tiger Woods, Luke Donald
Thanks to his incredible short game and killer putting, Tiger's always a threat when he can keep his drives on the planet, which he seems to be doing lately. Also, expect to see Luke Donald on the leaderboard. He's steady, deadly accurate with his irons, he can putt, and he's really starting to see himself as a guy who can win it all.
Who'll surprise? Paul Casey
The ugly anti-American has got a great game for Augusta and won two weeks ago on the Euro tour.
Who'll disappoint? Sergio Garcia
The flat stick will keep Sergio out of the running.
Chris Lewis, SI golf writer
Who'll win? Ernie Els
Els is my pick for two reasons. First, I love how he putted at the Tavistock Cup. (How's that for an out-of-left-field rationale?) Second, I believe the golf gods owe Ernie a jacket. When you endure what he did last year at Augusta -- shooting a final-round 67, only to lose to a guy who birdies 5 of his last 7 holes -- the next year's gotta see some divine intervention on your behalf.
Who else will contend? Ryan Moore, Mike Weir
Who? Moore is the UNLV senior who last year put together the best summer of amateur golf since Bobby Jones' 1930 Grand Slam, winning the NCAA Individual Championship, Western Amateur, U.S. Amateur and U.S. Pub Links. Word is that he's the real thing, and plenty of pros are eager to get their first look at him. (He play a Wednesday practice round with Mickelson.) He may not win, but he's a good bet to turn some heads. I should make my third pick a member of the Big Four, but that would be too safe. Cheating a little bit, the forecast calls for rain on Thursday and Friday, so I'll pick Weir, the closest the Tour gets to a mudder. I can't remember anyone else in the field holding up as many trophies while wearing a rainsuit.
Who'll surprise? Joe Ogilvie
Beside Moore, watch for first-timer Joe Ogilvie. Many of you are just getting to know him -- he's the bond-trader-in-disguise who's had recent near-misses at the Hope and the Honda. I'll be the first to tell you that he's now among the best six or seven putters on tour. That'll lead to a good showing this week.
Who'll disappoint? Phil Mickelson
Phil's been saying he loved it that the BellSouth would finish on Monday, and his win convincingly made his case. But he had a press conference and the champions' dinner on Tuesday, and the par-three contest on Wednesday (with his 5-year-old daughter Amanda on the bag). Even if he's not physically exhausted, he'll have zero time to refocus mentally. He may make a run on the weekend, but it will be too late for him to repeat, the only result with which he'll be satisfied.
Mike McAllister, SI.com golf editor
Who'll win? Ernie Els
Until Els wins at Augusta, he'll be considered this generation's version of Greg Norman -- a big-name player who usually contends but never seals the deal. Now that Phil Mickelson has won, the Masters gallery might be willing to jump on Ernie's bandwagon if he's close down the stretch. If that happens, Els could ride that wave of support to victory.
Who else will contend? Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson, Retief Goosen
OK, we're not exactly climbing out on a limb here. It's the usual suspects, all for the obvious reasons. Goosen, with his steady demeanor, may prove to be the least susceptible to back-nine pressure on Sunday.
Who'll surprise? Adam Scott
The Aussie ranks in the world's top 10 but the majors haven't exactly been his forte, having missed the cut in eight of his 15 career starts (including last year at Augusta). Perhaps that's why he's not considered more of a threat. He did finish in the top 10 at Augusta in 2002, though, and also comes off a top 10 finish at last year's PGA Championship.
Who'll disappoint? Vijay Singh
Vijay has gone all Joe Namath on us, telling Golf magazine that he's "going to win." No problems with the Broadway Joe comparison (as long as Vijay doesn't do panty hose commercials), but he's had a couple of hiccups this year that leaves us with some doubts.
Rob Stanger, SI.com golf correspondent
Who'll win? Ernie Els
After major disappointments from the majors in 2004, Els will learn from those tournaments. Once he wins the Masters, he'll need only a PGA Championship to close out the career grand slam.
Who else will contend? Tiger Woods, Vijay Singh, Phil Mickelson
This year's Masters will be a classic, an epic battle of heavyweights battling it out not only for the green jacket but for their place at the top of the world rankings. No other time in golf history have we had such a tight race between three players (Singh, Woods, Els) within a point for the No. 1 ranking, with fan favorite Mickelson giving chase.
Who'll surprise? Charles Howell III
Look for the hometown kid to break through after last year's solid tournament, only this time he'll put four good rounds together. He has continued to improve his performances every year at the Masters, like Mike Weir did when he snuck in his victory in 2003.
Who'll disappoint? Mike Weir
After winning the Masters in 2003, Weir will continue to struggle at Augusta.
Gary Van Sickle, SI golf writer
Who'll win? Retief Goosen
Once Goosen wins the Masters, he'll have to be included in what should have been the Big Five all along. He's been playing well ever since an inexplicably bad first round at Bay Hill. He's close, he's got a lot of shots in his arsenal and he's contended before at Augusta.
Who else will contend? Phil Mickelson, Ernie Els, Tiger Woods
Mickelson's game is perfect for Augusta -- better than a righthander's -- and his record of close calls there speaks for itself. It'll be an upset if he's not in contention. It ought to be Els' time to win the Masters, just like last year was Phil's. He's come hearbreakingly close and in his mid-30s, if he doesn't win soon, he may end up with as many green jackets as Greg Norman. Tiger's driving still isn't where it should be. He's still spraying a few off the world. You can get away with that at Augusta most of the time, however. He'll be no worse than top eight, guaranteed.
Who'll surprise? Tom Lehman
Lehman played his way into the Masters, no small feat, and for those with short memories -- uh, that would be all of us -- he has finished second, third, sixth and 12th in previous Masters. This track suits him.
Who'll disappoint? Vijay Singh
Vijay's last five Masters finishes were first, 18th, seventh, sixth and sixth, and he's ranked No. 1 in the world, so you'd assume he'd make a run. But there's something about those recent glitches with his putter -- the short miss in the Honda playoff with Harrington and another one at the Players Championship in the final round -- that does not bode well on Augusta National's hellaciously fast greens.
Scott Wraight, SI.com Associate Producer
Who'll win? Stewart Cink
If you're going to win at Augusta, you've got to master the flat stick -- and Cink is one of the best putters on Tour (he's currently ranked fourth in putting). Cink has also finished in the top 25 in his last two starts at Augusta. His game seems to be in order this year, making the cut in all eight tournaments he's entered while earning a top-10 finish four times.
Who else will contend? David Toms, Darren Clarke
Even though he missed the cut at last year's Masters, Toms finished in a tie for eighth in 2003 and ranks sixth in putting this year. Clarke is a double threat in that he can putt fairly well and find the fairway more times than not -- two ingredients that should add up to a solid showing.
Who'll surprise? Zach Johnson
I know what you're thinking -- it'll definitely hurt Johnson that he has never played Augusta, but he has the game, personality and tenacity to be a factor. His experience on the Nationwide Tour has really proven to be a benefit. Johnson has made the cut in all nine events this year and has three top-10 finishes. Interesting tidbit: Johnson's 18 consecutive made cuts ranks third behind Tiger Woods (140) and David Toms (19).
Who'll disappoint? Sergio Garcia
Before this season began, there was much talk about Garcia having a breakthrough year. I have seen nothing to that effect. Even though Garcia has made every cut in six starts this year, he has fallen apart on the weekend. Garcia finished tied for fourth last year but will be lucky to crack the top 20 this year.
S.I.com
Who'll win? Ernie Els
Els was agonizingly close last year and has finished in the top-six every year since 2000. He's way overdue.
Who else will contend? Phil Mickelson, Tiger Woods, Retief Goosen, Vijay Singh, Tom Lehman, Jose Maria Olazabal, Davis Love III
Mickelson's obviously capable, but just three players (Nicklaus, Faldo, Woods) have successfully defended their crowns. Tiger loves the course and errant drives won't kill him. His flatstick will be the key. Goosen has great distance off the tee and an excellent pressure putter. Singh is a past winner but lost chances to win recently -- missing a two-footer at the Honda and left an approach in the lake on 18 at Bay Hill -- that could play with his mind. Lehman has eight top 10s in the last 13 events and plays Augusta well. Olazabal's a two-time winner who's made a resurgence this year. Love plays the course well but needs but needs more consistent scoring to win.
Who'll surprise? K.J. Choi, Luke Donald, Ryan Moore, Bernhard Langer
Choi was third last year, is an excellent iron player and is still underrated. This is Donald's first Augusta appearance, but he has the consistent game that is worthy to watch. Moore, an amateur, made the cut last year with only one 3-putt. He's fearless. Langer, a two-time winner, has great course knowledge.
Who'll disappoint? Mike Weir, Sergio Garcia
Weir's an excellent player but my gut tells me it's not his year. Garcia tied for fourth last year but his putting (182nd ranked) will be his downfall.
Jim Gorant, SI Golf Plus Senior Editor
Who'll win? Retief Goosen
Ah, Augusta in April, the slick fairways, the almost non-existent rough, and superfast, sloping greens. It's a venue that remains open to long and medium-long hitters alike (Mickelson, Weir, last two champs) and rewards patience, great iron play and putting. I'm going with Mr. Excitement. Goosen is good in all facets of the game and has been lurking just out of the winner's circle all season (six starts, five top 13 finishes).
Who else will contend? Tiger Woods, Luke Donald
Thanks to his incredible short game and killer putting, Tiger's always a threat when he can keep his drives on the planet, which he seems to be doing lately. Also, expect to see Luke Donald on the leaderboard. He's steady, deadly accurate with his irons, he can putt, and he's really starting to see himself as a guy who can win it all.
Who'll surprise? Paul Casey
The ugly anti-American has got a great game for Augusta and won two weeks ago on the Euro tour.
Who'll disappoint? Sergio Garcia
The flat stick will keep Sergio out of the running.
Chris Lewis, SI golf writer
Who'll win? Ernie Els
Els is my pick for two reasons. First, I love how he putted at the Tavistock Cup. (How's that for an out-of-left-field rationale?) Second, I believe the golf gods owe Ernie a jacket. When you endure what he did last year at Augusta -- shooting a final-round 67, only to lose to a guy who birdies 5 of his last 7 holes -- the next year's gotta see some divine intervention on your behalf.
Who else will contend? Ryan Moore, Mike Weir
Who? Moore is the UNLV senior who last year put together the best summer of amateur golf since Bobby Jones' 1930 Grand Slam, winning the NCAA Individual Championship, Western Amateur, U.S. Amateur and U.S. Pub Links. Word is that he's the real thing, and plenty of pros are eager to get their first look at him. (He play a Wednesday practice round with Mickelson.) He may not win, but he's a good bet to turn some heads. I should make my third pick a member of the Big Four, but that would be too safe. Cheating a little bit, the forecast calls for rain on Thursday and Friday, so I'll pick Weir, the closest the Tour gets to a mudder. I can't remember anyone else in the field holding up as many trophies while wearing a rainsuit.
Who'll surprise? Joe Ogilvie
Beside Moore, watch for first-timer Joe Ogilvie. Many of you are just getting to know him -- he's the bond-trader-in-disguise who's had recent near-misses at the Hope and the Honda. I'll be the first to tell you that he's now among the best six or seven putters on tour. That'll lead to a good showing this week.
Who'll disappoint? Phil Mickelson
Phil's been saying he loved it that the BellSouth would finish on Monday, and his win convincingly made his case. But he had a press conference and the champions' dinner on Tuesday, and the par-three contest on Wednesday (with his 5-year-old daughter Amanda on the bag). Even if he's not physically exhausted, he'll have zero time to refocus mentally. He may make a run on the weekend, but it will be too late for him to repeat, the only result with which he'll be satisfied.
Mike McAllister, SI.com golf editor
Who'll win? Ernie Els
Until Els wins at Augusta, he'll be considered this generation's version of Greg Norman -- a big-name player who usually contends but never seals the deal. Now that Phil Mickelson has won, the Masters gallery might be willing to jump on Ernie's bandwagon if he's close down the stretch. If that happens, Els could ride that wave of support to victory.
Who else will contend? Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson, Retief Goosen
OK, we're not exactly climbing out on a limb here. It's the usual suspects, all for the obvious reasons. Goosen, with his steady demeanor, may prove to be the least susceptible to back-nine pressure on Sunday.
Who'll surprise? Adam Scott
The Aussie ranks in the world's top 10 but the majors haven't exactly been his forte, having missed the cut in eight of his 15 career starts (including last year at Augusta). Perhaps that's why he's not considered more of a threat. He did finish in the top 10 at Augusta in 2002, though, and also comes off a top 10 finish at last year's PGA Championship.
Who'll disappoint? Vijay Singh
Vijay has gone all Joe Namath on us, telling Golf magazine that he's "going to win." No problems with the Broadway Joe comparison (as long as Vijay doesn't do panty hose commercials), but he's had a couple of hiccups this year that leaves us with some doubts.
Rob Stanger, SI.com golf correspondent
Who'll win? Ernie Els
After major disappointments from the majors in 2004, Els will learn from those tournaments. Once he wins the Masters, he'll need only a PGA Championship to close out the career grand slam.
Who else will contend? Tiger Woods, Vijay Singh, Phil Mickelson
This year's Masters will be a classic, an epic battle of heavyweights battling it out not only for the green jacket but for their place at the top of the world rankings. No other time in golf history have we had such a tight race between three players (Singh, Woods, Els) within a point for the No. 1 ranking, with fan favorite Mickelson giving chase.
Who'll surprise? Charles Howell III
Look for the hometown kid to break through after last year's solid tournament, only this time he'll put four good rounds together. He has continued to improve his performances every year at the Masters, like Mike Weir did when he snuck in his victory in 2003.
Who'll disappoint? Mike Weir
After winning the Masters in 2003, Weir will continue to struggle at Augusta.
Gary Van Sickle, SI golf writer
Who'll win? Retief Goosen
Once Goosen wins the Masters, he'll have to be included in what should have been the Big Five all along. He's been playing well ever since an inexplicably bad first round at Bay Hill. He's close, he's got a lot of shots in his arsenal and he's contended before at Augusta.
Who else will contend? Phil Mickelson, Ernie Els, Tiger Woods
Mickelson's game is perfect for Augusta -- better than a righthander's -- and his record of close calls there speaks for itself. It'll be an upset if he's not in contention. It ought to be Els' time to win the Masters, just like last year was Phil's. He's come hearbreakingly close and in his mid-30s, if he doesn't win soon, he may end up with as many green jackets as Greg Norman. Tiger's driving still isn't where it should be. He's still spraying a few off the world. You can get away with that at Augusta most of the time, however. He'll be no worse than top eight, guaranteed.
Who'll surprise? Tom Lehman
Lehman played his way into the Masters, no small feat, and for those with short memories -- uh, that would be all of us -- he has finished second, third, sixth and 12th in previous Masters. This track suits him.
Who'll disappoint? Vijay Singh
Vijay's last five Masters finishes were first, 18th, seventh, sixth and sixth, and he's ranked No. 1 in the world, so you'd assume he'd make a run. But there's something about those recent glitches with his putter -- the short miss in the Honda playoff with Harrington and another one at the Players Championship in the final round -- that does not bode well on Augusta National's hellaciously fast greens.
Scott Wraight, SI.com Associate Producer
Who'll win? Stewart Cink
If you're going to win at Augusta, you've got to master the flat stick -- and Cink is one of the best putters on Tour (he's currently ranked fourth in putting). Cink has also finished in the top 25 in his last two starts at Augusta. His game seems to be in order this year, making the cut in all eight tournaments he's entered while earning a top-10 finish four times.
Who else will contend? David Toms, Darren Clarke
Even though he missed the cut at last year's Masters, Toms finished in a tie for eighth in 2003 and ranks sixth in putting this year. Clarke is a double threat in that he can putt fairly well and find the fairway more times than not -- two ingredients that should add up to a solid showing.
Who'll surprise? Zach Johnson
I know what you're thinking -- it'll definitely hurt Johnson that he has never played Augusta, but he has the game, personality and tenacity to be a factor. His experience on the Nationwide Tour has really proven to be a benefit. Johnson has made the cut in all nine events this year and has three top-10 finishes. Interesting tidbit: Johnson's 18 consecutive made cuts ranks third behind Tiger Woods (140) and David Toms (19).
Who'll disappoint? Sergio Garcia
Before this season began, there was much talk about Garcia having a breakthrough year. I have seen nothing to that effect. Even though Garcia has made every cut in six starts this year, he has fallen apart on the weekend. Garcia finished tied for fourth last year but will be lucky to crack the top 20 this year.
S.I.com
